Predicting Maple Leafs’ RFA Connor Dewar’s Next Contract

Much like I said in regards to RFA defenseman Timothy Liljegren, it’s hard for me to imagine a world in which Dewar gets anything but a short-term deal. He’s a bona fide bottom-six, defense-first player, and at 24, those types of forwards scarcely get deals more than three years long.

Comparable Contracts for Dewar

Admittedly, Dewar is a tough player to find contract comparisons for — he’s only 24 and is somewhat of a black hole in term of his offensive impact. On the other side of the puck, he’s absolutely dominant, shutting down opponents easily and playing the penalty kill with excellent results. Points-wise, he put up career-highs in goals (11) and points (19) this past campaign. Despite having an expected goal share (xGF%) of just 47.37% with Minnesota, his game turned around with the Maple Leafs, posting an xGF% of 51.25% after the trade. Dewar led the Maple Leafs in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), meaning that opposing teams had a harder time generating scoring chances with him on the ice than anyone else in Toronto.

The first name that comes to mind in terms of similarity is Zach Aston-Reese. Aston-Reese has always been a defense-first player, and arguably one of the best pure defensive forwards in recent NHL history. He only played three games in 2023-24 simply because his defensive game is the only thing he was good at — offense dies on his stick, and he’s yet to eclipse 17 points in a single season in his seven-year career. Still, he was an integral part of the Pittsburgh Penguins’ bottom-six group and was rewarded for his defensive efforts with a two-year, $1 million average annual value (AAV) contract after his age-24 season, worth 1.23% of the salary cap at the time.

Another similar player is Yakov Trenin , who was dealt to the Colorado Avalanche from the Nashville Predators 2024 Trade Deadline. Trenin’s career high in points is 24, which he hit in back-to-back seasons in 2021-22 and 2022-23, the latter of which was a campaign in which he scored 17 goals. Their defensive aptitudes are very similar, with Dewar having a slight edge in impact at five on five and Trenin having a slight advantage on the penalty kill. Trenin’s profile to general managers around the league is also likely much more valuable simply because of his size, grit, and the “intangibles” he brings to the table. For his efforts over the last few seasons, he was given a two-year deal at $1.7 million annually in August of 2022, a contract that took up 2.06% of the salary cap at that time.

Dewar Is a Worthwhile Investment

Dewar, though his offensive ceiling is infinitely smaller than what he’s done defensively at this point in his career, has shown enough promise through a double-digit goal season in his second campaign that he’s worth a slight overpayment. On defense, he’s already shown that he’s an elite shutdown player at both five on five and on the penalty kill. Considering that he’s already surpassed Aston-Reese’s career-high in points, I would assume he gets paid more than Aston-Reese’s age-24 contract extension. At the same time, his offensive ceiling doesn’t match that of Trenin, and he will be paid less simply by being a less physical, smaller player. With those in mind, I would anticipate that Dewar gets a two-year deal at around $1.4 million AAV, which would tie-up 1.59% of the 2024-25 salary cap. After recovering from surgery this offseason, he will be a staple in the team’s bottom-six.