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Texas Rangers' Marcus Semien. Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

MLB futures: Is it too risky to bet the Over on Rangers regular-season wins?

By Chelena Goldman | Last updated 3/13/24

No team in the MLB surprised fans and supposed experts last season like the Texas Rangers did. And following their miracle run at winning their first-ever World Series, oddsmakers have set the bar for where they think the defending champions will land by the end of the regular season.

Remember, the Rangers narrowly made it into the postseason in 2023. They finished second in the AL West behind the Astros with 90 wins, who they later had to battle in the ALCS en route to a World Series clash with the Arizona Diamondbacks. While the postseason run is what landed them the Commissioner's Trophy, Texas still had to win 90 or so games — and they will have to do that again in 2024 if they want a chance at repeating.

DraftKings has set the over/under for Texas Rangers regular-season wins at 89.5, giving a slight lean to the Under at -115 and listing the Over at -105.

Here's a look at which side of that number your bet should go.

Picture perfect Postseason moments. pic.twitter.com/hjiVXXPY5k
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) March 13, 2024

There are two major things to consider when looking at the 2024 Rangers lineup before you place your bet, and part of that has to do with the returning players from last season's roster. CBS Sports has posted a projected batting lineup that has Marcus Semien in the lead-off spot, Corey Seager batting second and Evan Carter — who hit .300 with a home run, six RBI and nine runs scored in the postseason — filling the No. 3 spot. Texas also has a returning pitching staff consisting of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Nate Eovaldi. Looking at those few names alone, betting the Over on regular-season wins seems like the obvious choice.

Before you wager on 90-plus wins being a done deal, you should consider the health of the Rangers' roster heading into Opening Day.

It isn't set in stone yet if Seager will be available for Opening Day after having sports hernia surgery in January. Third baseman Josh Jung, who CBS projects to bat fifth, is recovering from a spring training injury and there could be an opening at the designated hitter position. Even with top prospect Wyatt Langford making a preseason case for AL Rookie of the Year, the Rangers' batting lineup doesn't look quite as intimidating.

The pitching staff is a whole other story. The starting rotation has been thrown for a loop with deGrom (Tommy John), Scherzer (back) and fellow starter Tyler Mahle (Tommy John) all expected to miss a good chunk of the start of the season. That puts a lot of pressure on Eovaldi to carry the starting five, and he has an injury history of his own.

And it isn't just the Rangers' own roster that you should consider when betting the Over or Under on regular-season wins — it's the other teams in their division. The Astros will still be a tough competitor, especially if they have a better home record than they did in 2023. The Seattle Mariners, who very narrowly missed the playoffs last year, are expected to be even better in 2024. And while the Los Angeles Angels aren't exactly a threat in the standings, Mike Trout is slashing .329/.446/.613 with 44 home runs lifetime against Texas.

Wyatt Langford continued his torrid spring with an RBI double and four runs scored for the @Rangers.

With a 2-for-3 outing, MLB's No. 6 prospect raised his Cactus League OPS to 1.300 over 36 plate appearances. pic.twitter.com/bUUgkyhS76
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 11, 2024

What does all of this information boil down to?

The Rangers have the potential to build on their impressive 2023 campaign thanks to the returning talent from last year's World Series run and the promising prospects coming up the pipeline. However, Texas will be starting off the season with injuries to their roster, and may have to rely on youngsters in the batting order to out-hit the woes caused by a depleted pitching staff.

Relying on one side of your lineup to make up for the other is always tricky, especially with unproven prospects.

So while the Rangers can certainly have another 90-win season with the roster they have, injuries make that harder to guarantee and make the Over a risky bet.

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