MLB best bets: Marlins vs. Cubs odds, pick and predictions for Thursday 4/18

Marlins vs. Cubs Odds

Wednesday, April 17, 7:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Miami Marlins

A.J. Puk will be taking the mound for his fourth start of the season. The converted reliever has struggled to switch from the bullpen to the rotation and could be making one of his final starts if he doesn’t perform.

Puk has a 5.91 ERA across 10 2/3 IP this season. He has failed to get to five innings in a single start and has been walking batters at an extraordinary clip. His 24.1% walk rate is the highest in the majors among pitchers with at least 10 IP.

Out of 175 pitchers in that group, Puk ranks 107th in Stuff+ with a 94 and 147th in Location+ with a 96.

The former sixth-overall pick needs to rebound soon, but this Chicago offense looks to be a tough matchup for anyone at this point in the season.

Miami has struggled to get anything going on offense this season. They rank 29th in wOBA, SLG, and wRC+. This team walks at the third-lowest rate in the league. The Statcast numbers are a bit better, but they are still amongst the bottom 10 lineups in almost every offensive metric.

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Chicago Cubs

Jameson Taillon makes his season debut today. He was injured while warming up for a spring training appearance and was placed on the IL with a back strain. According to MLB.com, Taillon said that he expects to be cleared for 85-90 pitches in his debut.

A former top prospect for the Pirates, Taillon is now 32 years old and in his second season with the Cubs. Last season, he pitched 154.1 innings with a 4.84 ERA. Taillon’s Stuff+ of 99 ranked 30th of 58 qualifying starters, but he excels in his location, where he ranked seventh in Location+.

Despite his fairly average stuff, Taillon was able to put up solid numbers in the batted ball department due to his location and ability to induce weak contact. He had just an 11th percentile Barrel% allowed in 2023, and his HardHit% and average exit velo were slightly above average. Taillon also had a strong walk rate of 6.3%, better than he typically sits.

Chicago’s offense has been a pleasant surprise this year. They rank ninth in wOBA, 12th in wRC+, seventh in SLG%, and fourth in ISO. They also walk at the sixth-highest rate in the league, which should benefit them against Puk.

The Cubs have also had plenty of success against lefties this year. They have an outstanding 0.393 wOBA and 147 wRC+ against southpaws, which are the highest marks in the league. This could just be a small sample-size mirage, as they have the third-fewest plate appearances against the side this year.

Marlins vs. Cubs

Betting Pick & Prediction

Puk's conversion to being a starting pitcher has not been going well, and this Chicago offense looks more than capable of continuing this trend. They have been the best team in the MLB this season at hitting left-handed pitching and are patient enough at the plate that Puk may have a rough day ahead of him.

Taillon is a talented starter when healthy. Although he may not be the ace of a rotation, he certainly excels at locating his pitches and producing weak contact. Miami’s offense has been one of the worst in the league to this point in the year, which should provide a good opportunity for Taillon to get his feet wet.

Puk doesn’t typically go deep into games, and with the pitch count restrictions, Taillon likely won’t go too deep either, even if he has a successful start.

For this reason, I’m looking to the first-half line and taking the Cubs at -115 to have a lead after these first five innings before things turn over to the bullpen.

Pick: Cubs -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115 or better)