NCAAF Week 12 in review: What to do about FSU?

They Weren't Even Favored 

Washington has leapfrogged Florida State in the AP rankings after last week's action (and assumedly the CFP rankings too). I know there is a lot of rhetoric about how good this team is or isn't, in part because of the fact that they were not even favored last week on the road. All the Huskies do is win and they have shown they can win in a variety of ways too. They are big favorites this week in the recently extended Apple Cup.

Betting takeaway ... I wonder if the extensions of the Apple Cup actually takes away some fight from the Cougars. Though they have a chance to thwart a great season by UW. Is that enough?

SEC Disappointments (and there are a lot of them)

Texas A&M made a splash when they decided it didn't matter about the buyout for Jimbo Fisher. I kind of think Florida might have to follow suit. They say they "it means more" in the SEC but that is not showing in Gainesville, or anywhere other than Alabama and Georgia. I know conference play can cannibalize teams but in the SEC there seems to be more programs having disappointing seasons than normal (Mississippi State, Auburn, LSU, Kentucky ... need I go on?). Is that the new normal with NIL, and the transfer portal, etc?

Betting takeaway ...t his is rivalry week so anything can happen, right? That can be true but often it just confirms what we already know. Tread carefully with underdogs you think will rise. 

Fire Coach, Win Game, Nobody Cares 

The timing of head coach firings has as much to do with who they might be able to get next, as it does with what just happened. In many cases, teams are winning games and then firing their coaches. Texas A&M and Boise State both made news with their firings after wins and then followed it up with another win. I am not sure that is impressive, but just a note about how a change at the top does not mean you have to abandon ship from a betting perspective. 

Betting takeaway ... Predicting the motivations of teenagers is tough, especially when some can be out the door so quickly now. Each situation always feels different to me so I would not expect an immediate bump in all cases. 

No More FCS Nonsense

I sort of get the idea of trying to ease into the season with light competition, but I have never understood why teams like Alabama would schedule a "live practice" late in the year. Thankfully we do not have any more of these the rest of the way. However, I would like to give a shoutout to the FCS Playoffs beginning this weekend. I wish these games were easier to watch and know they present great betting opportunities for those who know their stuff.

Betting takeaway ... These FCS Playoff lines do not generate as much interest and as such are less likely to move. They get kind of lost during Thanksgiving rivalries too. If you know your stuff, fire away.